US Midterm Polls Point to Challenges for Trump as Republicans Face Uncertain Battle for Congress

Major polling analysts project that Republicans could lose their majority in the House of Representatives, while the contest for control of the Senate remains uncertain. The outcome will shape the final two years of Trump’s second presidential term and determine how easily his administration can advance its legislative agenda.

If Democrats gain control of either chamber, they could use their congressional majority to challenge the administration’s policies, conduct investigations and block legislative proposals. A divided government could also lead to prolonged political disputes and potential legal challenges.

The prospect of Democratic control of the House has revived comparisons with Trump’s first term, when the Democratic-led chamber impeached him. Trump has acknowledged that renewed Democratic control could bring similar confrontations.

Trump faces economic concerns and declining approval ratings

Trump has made the midterm elections a referendum on his administration, urging voters to treat the contests as if he himself were on the ballot. However, some Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves from policies that have attracted criticism in their states.

New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate John Sununu, for instance, said in a campaign advertisement that he would oppose presidential policies harmful to his state, citing his opposition to the conflict with Iran and the trade dispute with Canada.

Trump has concentrated much of his campaign activity in states that supported him in the 2024 presidential election, seeking to reinforce Republican support in traditionally conservative territory.

At recent rallies, he has claimed that his appearances have helped struggling candidates improve their electoral prospects.

His administration has also faced controversy over a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska’s Senate election results from being officially declared if Republican candidate Dan S. Sullivan loses. The administration argued that the presence of another candidate with a similar name, Daniel J. Sullivan, could confuse voters.

Early voting gathers pace

Voting is already underway across the country. Nearly 30 million Americans had cast ballots through early in-person voting or postal voting by Monday, according to the figures cited in the report.

The United States has approximately 217 million registered voters. Midterm turnout has historically been lower than presidential election turnout, reaching 46.2 per cent in 2022 and 50 per cent in 2018.

The outcome of the House elections is particularly significant because the president’s party has historically tended to lose congressional seats during midterm contests. The scale of any shift, however, will determine how much legislative influence either party gains.

House projections favour Democrats

Polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics showed Trump’s job approval at 38.2 per cent among likely voters, compared with 60.2 per cent who disapproved. The figures also indicated that 57 per cent of respondents believed his policies were leaving them financially worse off.

Economic concerns have become a central issue in the campaign, with inflation, fuel costs and tariffs affecting household budgets.

The report cited an inflation rate of 3.7 per cent for the previous month, up from 3.4 per cent in August. Rising petroleum prices, particularly for diesel, have also increased transportation and production costs, with potential knock-on effects on food and other everyday goods.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump had pledged to bring petrol prices down to $2 per gallon. The figures cited in the report put the average petrol price at $4.28 per gallon and diesel at $6.28 per gallon.

RealClearPolitics projected Democrats winning 227 seats in the 435-member House, including 25 races classified as toss-ups.

The Cook Political Report projected 220 seats for Democrats, with 17 contests considered toss-ups. Its House elections editor, Erin Covey, said the Republican Party’s prospects of retaining control had narrowed considerably.

CBS News projected a possible outcome of 229 seats for Democrats and 206 for Republicans, while noting that Republicans still had a narrow route to retaining their majority. The network also cautioned that polling errors in previous elections and uncertainty among undecided voters made the outcome difficult to determine.

Senate contest remains uncertain

The Senate presents a more complicated picture because only about one-third of its 100 seats are contested every two years, with senators serving six-year terms. Thirty-five seats are up for election in the current cycle.

CBS News counted 46 seats for Democrats and 44 for Republicans among seats not classified as toss-ups, leaving 10 contests uncertain. Its assessment of the competitive races suggested a possible 52–48 Democratic majority.

The Cook Political Report identified 15 seats as leaning towards Republicans and 13 towards Democrats, with seven races remaining toss-ups.

The projections underline the uncertainty surrounding control of the upper chamber, where a small number of competitive races could determine the balance of power.

Trump steps up campaigning in key states

Trump has intensified his campaign appearances in states where he secured victories in the 2024 presidential election, seeking to bolster Republican candidates amid signs of weakening support.

He was scheduled to hold two rallies in Texas on Tuesday. Although Trump carried the state by 14 percentage points in the presidential election, Republican candidate Ken Paxton was reportedly trailing Democrat James Talarico by 1.5 percentage points in the relevant contest.

Trump also held a rally in Mississippi on Monday, following appearances in Michigan, Florida and Iowa in the preceding days.

The campaign push reflects the importance of state-level contests to the broader congressional battle, as Republicans seek to retain control of Congress while Democrats aim to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction over economic conditions and the administration’s policies.

The November 3 elections will determine the composition of the House and Senate, shaping the political environment in which Trump governs for the remainder of his term.