Northeast Awaits Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal After Region Records 26% Rainfall Deficit

The Southwest Monsoon has yet to officially withdraw from India's Northeast, even as the retreat has begun in parts of western India. The eight northeastern states recorded rainfall 26 per cent below their average during the June-September monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department.

An IMD official said the department has not yet declared the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the Northeast. The monsoon has, however, started retreating from parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Last year, the monsoon withdrew from the northeastern region on October 14.

The rainfall picture across the region has been uneven. Sikkim, Tripura, Mizoram and Nagaland remained within the IMD's normal rainfall category during the four-month season. Mizoram and Tripura recorded rainfall deficits of 19 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively, while Sikkim and Nagaland recorded excess rainfall of 9 per cent and 6 per cent.

Under IMD classification, rainfall between 19 per cent below and 19 per cent above the long-period average is considered normal.

The remaining four states experienced significantly larger shortfalls. Meghalaya recorded the highest deficit at 60 per cent, followed by Manipur at 46 per cent, Arunachal Pradesh at 44 per cent and Assam at 28 per cent.

Meghalaya received 1,077.1 mm of rain between June and September, substantially below its normal rainfall of 2,695.3 mm for the period.

At the national level, the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season ended with rainfall at 87 per cent of the Long Period Average. India's total monsoon rainfall stood at 759.4 mm, making it the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.

The IMD recorded seasonal rainfall at 94.1 per cent of the LPA in Northwest India, 97 per cent in Central India, 76 per cent in South Peninsular India and 74 per cent in Northeast India.

East and Northeast India recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, the lowest seasonal total for the region since 1901. South Peninsular India received 542 mm, its fourth-lowest total since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001. Central India, meanwhile, remained within the normal rainfall category.

The rainfall deficit has raised concerns for agriculture in parts of the Northeast, where the Southwest Monsoon is particularly important for Kharif cultivation. Agricultural experts and meteorological officials note that rainfall during the monsoon, especially in July, plays an important role in supporting sowing and crop growth.

In Manipur, the impact has been particularly significant. A senior official of the state Agriculture Department said the 46 per cent rainfall deficit, combined with the prolonged ethnic conflict and limited irrigation infrastructure, had affected agricultural activity.

The state government, however, has put in place measures intended to support farming in both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the Kharif season, according to the official.

The Southwest Monsoon reached significant parts of the Northeast on June 7, two days later than its usual onset date, and covered the entire region by June 10.

Despite concerns surrounding prevailing El Niño conditions, meteorologists had earlier hoped that rainfall in the Northeast would improve before the monsoon eventually retreated from the region.

The IMD uses several conditions to determine the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon. These include the cessation of rainfall activity for five consecutive days, the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere and a marked decline in atmospheric moisture.

The monsoon's eventual withdrawal from the Northeast will therefore depend on whether these conditions are met across the region.