Monsoon Set to Retreat From Delhi, Punjab Within 48 Hours; Rain Forecast Across Several States

The monsoon is expected to begin withdrawing from the plains of northern India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh, within the next 48 hours, even as several parts of the country remain likely to receive rainfall over the coming days.

According to the India Meteorological Department, rain is forecast over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on October 6 and 7. Himachal Pradesh is expected to receive heavy rainfall between October 5 and 7, while Jammu and Kashmir could see heavy rain on October 6 and 7. Uttarakhand is also likely to experience heavy rainfall from October 5 to 7, with thunderstorms and gusty winds possible over parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Madhya Pradesh could continue to receive rainfall through October 3, while Chhattisgarh is expected to see rain between October 2 and 7. Bihar and Jharkhand may also receive rainfall from October 5 to 7.

In the Northeast, monsoon activity has remained active around Imphal in Manipur. Rainfall is expected to continue in Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh, although overall rain activity across much of the country is forecast to remain limited during the October 1-7 period.

Isolated heavy rainfall is nevertheless possible in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and parts of the Northeast. The weather department expects rainfall activity to reduce further during the second week of October.

A fresh low-pressure area could also develop over the Andaman Sea around October 13, potentially influencing weather conditions in the region.

The IMD expects the monsoon to withdraw completely from eastern Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and the remaining parts of Haryana during the first week of October. Between October 8 and 14, the withdrawal is expected to extend to Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and the northeastern states.

Monsoon activity is also likely to conclude over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat by the second week of October, following its withdrawal from Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

### Post-monsoon rainfall outlook

The weather department has forecast rainfall during the October-December post-monsoon season, particularly across parts of southern India. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and south interior Karnataka are among the regions expected to receive rainfall during the period.

Overall post-monsoon rainfall is projected to remain between 88 and 112 per cent of the long-period average. However, most parts of the country outside the southern peninsula and sections of northwest India could record below-normal rainfall during the season.

The June-September southwest monsoon season ended with average rainfall of around 87 per cent of normal, making it a below-normal season. Rainfall patterns during the four months were marked by periods of intense precipitation interspersed with prolonged deficient rainfall.

Central India, including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, received around 97 per cent of its normal rainfall, while northwest India, which includes Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, recorded approximately 94 per cent.

The southern peninsula and Northeast India received considerably less rainfall, at around 76 per cent and 74 per cent of their respective normal levels.

Several spells of heavy rainfall in August and September helped prevent the seasonal rainfall totals from falling further. A deep depression that developed over Andhra Pradesh towards the end of September brought significant rain to multiple areas, including Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Heavy rainfall was recorded across parts of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand between September 24 and 27.

Another deep depression subsequently developed over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Myanmar coast on September 28, contributing to continued rainfall activity over parts of the country.