Intelligence Agencies Flag Possible ISI-Linked Threats Ahead of 2027 Assembly Polls

Seven states, including Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur and Goa, are scheduled to go to the polls between February and March next year. Intelligence agencies have identified several states as potentially vulnerable during the election period, with particular concern over Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Manipur.

An Intelligence Bureau official said the three states could face different forms of alleged ISI-linked activity. In Uttar Pradesh, the focus was expected to be on terror attacks and espionage, while Punjab could see attempts to increase arms and narcotics trafficking along with isolated grenade attacks. In Manipur, agencies were concerned about efforts to reignite unrest ahead of the elections.

The concerns come against the backdrop of a wider investigation into the network associated with Pakistani gangster Shahzad Bhatti. Indian authorities have previously alleged that Bhatti's network recruited Indian youths through social media and offered financial incentives for activities including reconnaissance and other assignments. The Centre said in August that more than 200 people had been arrested in cases linked to the network across multiple states.

According to officials cited in the report, the network had sought recruits across India and was allegedly using them for activities including surveillance of sensitive and crowded locations, installation of CCTV cameras, narcotics smuggling, counterfeiting and other criminal assignments.

Investigators have reported significant activity linked to the Bhatti network in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Recent operations in Uttar Pradesh have involved questioning suspects across multiple districts and examining their digital communications and social media connections.

In Uttar Pradesh, officials cited in the report said particular attention was being paid to sensitive sites as well as crowded public locations such as railway stations and bus stands. They expressed concern that such surveillance could potentially facilitate attacks during the election period.

Punjab has also emerged as an area of concern in investigations into alleged cross-border narco-terror networks. Security agencies have previously reported the recovery of weapons and explosives and alleged links between such networks and Pakistan-based handlers.

Officials cited in the report said suspected ISI-backed networks could seek to increase the movement of narcotics and weapons into Punjab ahead of the elections. They also pointed to isolated incidents of grenade attacks and vandalism allegedly involving pro-Khalistan elements, saying such incidents could both promote extremist narratives and divert the attention of security agencies.

Manipur has emerged as another major concern for security agencies. While the intensity of the ethnic violence that erupted in 2023 has declined, several issues associated with the conflict remain unresolved. Officials fear that groups with vested interests could attempt to exploit existing tensions and circulate misleading narratives to trigger renewed unrest.

According to an official cited in the report, the immediate objective of such efforts could be to recreate conditions similar to those witnessed during the peak of the 2023 violence. Agencies are also concerned that any renewed instability in Manipur could have wider repercussions across the northeastern region.

The report further claims that alleged ISI-linked networks could work through proxies in Bangladesh and India to exploit tensions during the election period. Officials said security agencies were monitoring these developments amid concerns that attempts to trigger unrest in Manipur could potentially have consequences beyond the state.